Diesel-Crude Spread Increasing
Diesel expected to inch up even as crude oil prices slide
The latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggests the spread between crude oil price and retail diesel prices will increase steadily over the coming months as crude oil prices continue a steady decline and diesel prices continue a gradual ascent.
The spread is currently around $1.91 per gallon. By December 2025, it is expected to grow to $1.99/gallon and will reach $2.21/gallon by October 2026.
While the growing spread is of concern to trucking firms hoping to get more relief on fuel prices, it still has a long way to go to match the largest spread in the last three years: a whopping $3.08/gallon in November 2022 when the retail price was at $5.26/gallon and crude price had slipped to $2.18/gallon.
Uncertainty around US tariff policy and geo-political instability is expected to impact crude price and, ultimately. diesel prices over the coming months. But at this point it is not reflected in the EIA's predictions.
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