Freight Spend and Volume Turning The Corner?

As we near the end of the first quarter of 2025 and wonder when the freight recession is finally over, it's instructive to look back at what happened with freight spend and volume the last few years.

US Bank's freight spend and volume indexes are a good proxy for freight activity and industry freight capacity. They measure changes in freight shipments and spend activity based on around $43 billion in annual freight payment transaction volumes through their firm.

Key Observations

• Shipment volumes in Q4 2024 were hurt by hurricanes, particularly in the Southeast.
• Spending was up slightly in Q4 2024 in the Northeast (0.9%) and West (0.1%), while contracting further in other areas.
• Shipments falling more than spending, even with lower fuel surcharges, suggests tighter capacity, according to Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank director of freight business analytics.
• The huge peak in freight spend in the middle of 2022 contrasts with the gradual drop in freight volume through the same period. A great illustration of the extreme freight cycle we are just coming out of.